In God We Trust

Should All Surveys Be Immediately Believed?  

 

By Dr. Rolando M. Ochoa D.B.A.

 

I once heard a Catholic priest in his sermon quote some statistics from a survey done by Pew Research Center. He said that more than nearly 69% of Catholics do not believe in transubstantiation. This word describes the most important teaching of the Catholic Church which postulates that the bread and wine is transformed into the body and blood of Christ as the priest does the consecration of the Mass using the same words that Christ used at the last supper when he said,” This is my body and this is my blood.” There are other leaders in the Church who have also mentioned this 69 percent affirming that it was true and accurate.

Given that I try to be a practicing Catholic, I was immediately skeptical as I am of all surveys in general due to the fact that I have done surveys and read many while getting my doctorate degree. I have also taught statistics in college. Thus 69% was hard to believe. So, I embarked on a search for answers by reviewing the Pew research and trying to confirm its validity.  I must admit that my original reaction was one of total disbelief which could of course influence my review here, even when I try to be as neutral as possible.

There are many important considerations to know before a survey is undertaken if you want one that is valid and provides results that can be both real and useful. Here are some of the most important of those considerations in my estimation:

Sampling: It is virtually impossible to survey the entire population that you want to study. So, researchers use what is called sampling. This is a method where a representative group (the sample) is randomly selected. This sample must be representative of the population. The size of the sample must also be significant and include other characteristics such as geographic location, education, level of experience, participation, etc. For example, if you want to survey bank teller attitudes in Florida, you must sample tellers that match the characteristics of the population you are trying to study.

Demographics: The researcher must try to match the demographic characteristics (Race, gender, age, etc.) of the sample to that of the population being studied. For example, the number of different races in the sample must be close to the percentages of these same races in the population.

Survey Document: The survey must contain demographic information as well as the survey questions. The wording of the questions is crucial to the credibility of results. Most legitimate questionnaires are either already proven or they go through a process to prove they are not biased. The questions can be leading ones. That means that the subject has been led to answer in a certain way due to the wording of the question. For example, the question may read, what makes you upset about working in a bank? Such a question could lead the subject to answer on a negative way. The choice of answers available must also be inclusive of all potential possibilities. For example, Choice A could be “Long hours” B could be “Low pay” and so on.

Financing: How is the research financed? That is an important question. Why is this research being done? That is another one. Who could benefit from the results and who could be harmed by the results? Yet another important question. Some researchers with less than pure intentions will manipulate the sampling factors as well as the questions being asked to benefit one party or another or even themselves. Many times, the source of financing is also not disclosed. This lack of disclosure should be an immediate clear sign of a lack of validity. For example, if research is done to proof the efficacy of a medical drug and then financed by the manufacturer of that medical drug, the chances are that the results will be bias towards the manufacturer.

After doing a lot of reading and compiling several sources of information, I have concluded that the Pew Research Center research of August 2019 titled: “Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ,” is not valid and is also biased.

This is why:

Sampling: Pew used what they call the American Trends Panel (ATP) as a sample. It is a group of people Pew has convinced to participate, not only on this research, but in others. It is not a random sample in my opinion. These are people who like to take surveys and not the random Catholics that you would survey at their church or via the website of several churches throughout the U.S. (Strike One)

The size of this ATP group at the time of the survey was 10,971 which included 1,835 so called Catholics. In other words, only around 11% of the respondents were self-described as Catholics. According to Pew’s own research in October 2018, there were 51 million Catholics in the U.S. This number represented around 15% of the U.S. population. Thus, their sample was too small as only 11% of the total respondents. Also, calling Catholic those who do not regularly go to Mass at least on Sunday is a stretch, in my opinion. (Strike Two)

According to that same Pew research, in 2014 Hispanics represented 34% of the Catholic population in the U.S. The number of Hispanics out of the 10,971 respondents in this particular survey was 1,191 or 11%. Given that most Hispanics are Catholic, this sample was invalid. (Strike Three, You Are Out!)

Demographics: Pew divides the Catholics into three groups: (A) Those who attend Mass weekly or more, (B) Those who attend Mass Monthly/Yearly, and (C) Those who attend Mass Seldom/Never. However, Pew does not disclose how many respondents belong to each group. I wonder why. They only disclose how each group answered the question. From the overall percentage that Pew published, i.e., that 69% do not believe in transubstantiation, one can easily estimate that most of the Catholics who responded were in the last two groups. Let me explain:

The report discloses these numbers:

37% of those in the (A) group do not believe in transubstantiation.

72% of those in the (B) group do not believe in transubstantiation.

87% of those in the (C) group do not believe in transubstantiation.

If 37% of Catholics in Group (A) do not believe in transubstantiation and 72% and 87% from groups (B) and (C) also do not believe, then the only way you get the finding that 69% do not believe, is if Group (A) is much smaller than the other two groups combined. A large percentage of those in groups (B) and (C) do not believe it. Is that why they do not come to Mass regularly? or is it because they do not come to Mass regularly the reason that they don’t believe it? Which is it? The lord only knows.

If 37% of Catholics in Group (A) do not believe, this means that 63% of practicing Catholics, Group (A), believe this dogma. Of course, if these numbers were valid, there should be some concern that 37% does not believe. But the 63% who believe, is a lot better than “JUST ONE THIRD” (31%) which was reported by Pew. This is a misleading headline and because most people only read the headline, they are foolishly led to believe something that even the survey results do not support.

Pew showed no responses from black Catholics. They only listed White and Hispanics. This can only mean that there were no blacks in the sample who were Catholic. As we all know there are many blacks that are Catholic in the U.S. This also reenforce the deficiency of the sample. They also showed that men believe more than women do and the higher your level of education, the more you believe. These last two results are also questionable in my mind. These seem to be contra intuitive.   

Survey Document: Pew did not supply that document in their article. All Pew has is the question and the set of possible answers respondents could choose from.

The Question:

“Regardless of the official teaching of the Catholic Church, what do you personally believe about the bread and wine used for Communion?”

In my opinion the first sentence of this question is cleverly leading the respondents to not believe. It is not necessary to include otherwise.

The Possible Answers:

·         Actually become the body and blood of Jesus Christ (31% of all Catholics in the sample chose this one)

·         Are symbols of the body and blood of Jesus Christ (69% of all Catholics in the sample chose this one)

Financing:

Pew describes itself in their website as follows:

“Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. We conduct public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. We do not take policy positions.”

 This is how Pew describes their funding:

“As documented in our IRS Form 990, our activities are largely funded through grants from The Pew Charitable Trusts. The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today’s most challenging problems by improving public policy, informing the public and invigorating civic life. Pew is an independent nonprofit organization — the sole beneficiary of seven individual trusts established between 1948 and 1979 by two sons and two daughters of Sun Oil Company founder Joseph N. Pew and his wife, Mary Anderson Pew.”

There is no disclosure regarding why Pew did this survey or if they received any separate funding for it.

Conclusion:

As I mentioned earlier, this research, in my opinion, is not valid and is presented with a bias against the Catholic Church. The sampling is completely wrong, the demographics are questionable to say the least, and the survey question is not unbiased.

The clergy and laity of the Catholic Church should not use this research and chastise with it those who come to church regularly. We should use it in a positive way and work on communicating with the 37% (according to this faulty research) that supposedly do not believe in transubstantiation. I suggest more sermons explaining the Eucharistic miracles, presentations showing videos of these miracles, and seminars and classes that bring in experts on the topic 

I also suggest that some segment of the Catholic Church commissions an independent reputable researcher to conduct similar research using all the safeguards and accepted scientific practices to explore this topic in an unbiased manner.

I praise those who firmly believe in the transubstantiation and invite those who doubt it, to learn more about it and pray for God’s wisdom so as to accept it and believe more fully the true presence of the Body and Blood of Christ at the altar during Mass.

Sources:

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2019/07/23/religious-knowledge-methodology/

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FT_19.08.05_Transubstantiation_Topline.pdf

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/10/10/7-facts-about-american-catholics/

https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/252998/us-catholic-population-shows-growth-trends-southward

https://www.pewresearch.org/about/