DEMs' Path After ObamaCare: Down, Down, Down
By Byron York
WashingtonExaminer.com
There were 60 Democrats in the Senate on
Christmas Eve 2009, when they voted in lockstep to
pass the Affordable Care Act. Soon there will be 46
Democrats in the Senate, or perhaps 47, if Sen. Mary
Landrieu manages to eke out a win in Louisiana. In
plain numbers, the post-Obamacare trajectory has not
been good for Senate Democrats.
The 46 or 47 Democrats in the next Senate are a bit
different from the group that passed Obamacare.
Sixteen of them took office after the Affordable
Care Act was signed into law. They never had to vote
for it and have never had to defend voting for it.
Are those post-Obamacare Democrats as strongly
opposed to changing the law as their colleagues who
voted for it? Or are they possibly a little less
personally invested in staving off challenges? It's
a question that will be tested in coming months.
"After [the midterms], the conditions for repeal and
replace may be even better than most people think,"
writes a Senate Republican aide in an email
exchange. "Not only is there a fresh crop of
Republicans eager to make good on campaign pledges,
but a significant number of Democrats have no
particular attachment to the law and may even want
to be rid of it as a political issue."
There could be some wishful thinking in that. Yes,
the post-Obamacare Democrats include Sens. Joe
Manchin, Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, and perhaps
another centrist or two. But there are a lot of
solidly doctrinaire liberals in the post-Obamacare
class: Chris Murphy, Richard Blumenthal, Mazie
Hirono, Brian Schatz, and others. They'll likely be
just as lockstep as their predecessors.
To make fundamental changes in Obamacare, Senate
Republicans will have to muster 60 votes, which
means — if the GOP has 54 — they will need to find
six Democrats to go along. On a few questions, that
will probably be easy; for example, there is broad
support for repealing Obamacare's medical device
tax. There could be such support for restoring a
40-hour work week.
Of course, even if six or more Democrats join
Republicans to pass Obamacare-related measures, the
president can still veto them. But he would have to
overturn the will of a supermajority in Congress.
Maybe that will give him pause. Or maybe not.
Some Democrats, and some outside observers, have
tried to convince themselves that Obamacare did not
play a central role in the 2014 campaign. The
Washington Post reported this week that the GOP
"played down its zeal to repeal" Obamacare during
the midterms.
That would come as a surprise to the newly elected
Republican senators — every one of them — who
campaigned on a pledge to repeal Obamacare. It would
come as a surprise to the Republican ad makers, both
for campaigns and outside groups, who made
commercial after commercial attacking Obamacare. And
it would also come as a surprise to House Speaker
John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader-elect Mitch
McConnell, who in the second paragraph of their
joint post-election article in the Wall Street
Journal said the voters' decision "means renewing
our commitment to repeal Obamacare."
What's unclear is the timing of the Republican move
to repeal Obamacare — which will not succeed — and
then efforts to strip away parts of the law, which
may find some success. Senate Republicans are still
in the minority in the lame-duck session, and
besides, it appears that President Obama is about to
blow up relations with Congress by taking unilateral
executive action on immigration.
Also in the mix: the jaw-dropping statements by
Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber. So far,
Republicans are still trying to digest and figure
out how best to use Gruber's frank admissions that
he and fellow Democrats deceived the public on the
nature of Obamacare during its passage in 2009 and
2010. House GOP lawmakers were expected to discuss
the Gruber revelations at a meeting Thursday morning
but never got around to it after long talks on
immigration and the budget.
At the very least, Gruber's words give Republicans a
new basis to emphasize what they've been saying for
a long time. Back in May, McConnell said that Obama
"sold [Obamacare] to us on a mountain of lies." A
year ago, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio wrote that
"Obamacare's passage was built on a foundation of
lies." Now, they and other Republicans can provide
striking new evidence.
But the question always comes back to those moderate
Democrats. Could the election results, plus new
leadership in the Senate, plus damaging revelations
like Gruber's, and — most importantly — the party's
downward trajectory since passing Obamacare,
influence enough moderates to join Republicans?
January could be the start of a new phase in the
years-long Obamacare war.