Romney Trails Obama, but Key Numbers Break His Way
By Michael Barone
RealClearPolitics.com
Now that Rick Santorum has "suspended" his
campaign, we can stop pretending and can say what
has been clear for weeks: Mitt Romney will be the
Republican nominee for president. The general
election campaign has begun.
In some quarters, it is assumed that Barack Obama
will be re-elected without too much difficulty.
There are reports that staffers at Obama's Chicago
headquarters consider Romney's candidacy a joke.
One suspects the adults there take a different view.
For the fundamentals say that this will be a
seriously contested race, with many outcomes
possible. Obama's job-approval numbers in the
realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls hover
at 48 percent positive, 47 percent negative. That's
on the cusp between victory and defeat.
Obama leads Romney in recent polls by 48 to 43
percent. Note that Obama's percentage does not
exceed his job approval. And Romney does not
maximize the potential Republican vote.
Romney carries bruises, some self-inflicted, from
the primary process, and his unfavorable numbers far
outnumber his favorables. He got more negative than
positive press coverage (interestingly, on Fox News
as well as mainstream media) even as he was winning
the nomination.
One reason is that his campaign and the super PAC
backing him have spent most of their ad dollars
battering down successive rivals who rose in the
polls. The positive case for Romney has gotten much
less of an airing.
But general elections involving sitting presidents
usually turn out to be verdicts on the incumbent.
Challengers who meet minimal standards tend to win
if most voters want the incumbent out.
Which is, or is close to being, the case today. Note
that the two national pollsters who limit their
samples to likely voters, Rasmussen and Bloomberg,
show the race a tie. Obama does better with the
larger universes of registered voters and all
adults. But polls show that this year, unlike 2008,
Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than
Democrats.
You see a similar picture when you look at polls in
the 11 states that were close last time and are
generally considered targets now. Not on the list
are Indiana and Missouri, whose 21 electoral votes
seem safely Republican this time, and New Mexico,
whose five electoral votes seem safe Democratic.
Recent polls in these 11 states show Obama ahead of
Romney in every state but Iowa. But they also show
him topping 50 percent only in Wisconsin.
Obama seems to be running slightly better than last
time in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, and
slightly weaker in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Iowa,
and about the same in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada,
with no recent polling in New Hampshire.
Obama has not sewn up any of these 11 states, which
have 144 electoral votes. Without them, and without
the 11 in Indiana and one in Nebraska he carried
last time, he would have only 205 electoral votes,
65 short of the needed majority.
And 2008 is not the only possible benchmark. In the
2010 congressional elections, Republicans carried
the popular vote for the House in all 11 of these
states. They went into the election with only 56 of
these states' 126 House seats and came out with 82.
Voters' issue focus this year looks more like that
of 2010 than 2008. Even polls showing Obama ahead
also show most voters rate him negatively on the top
issues, jobs and the economy. Neither the stimulus
package nor Obamacare evokes positive feelings.
The president has been reduced to trash-talking the
Supreme Court, leaving his press secretary to tidy
up afterward. He has been spending a week playing up
the Buffett rule, a tax proposal raising capital
gains rates on very high earners that would net
little revenue.
That polls well in a vacuum. But more extended
surveys, like one recently conducted for the
moderate Third Way group, show most voters prefer
limiting government and putting economic growth
ahead of "an economy based on fairness."
That's closer to Mitt Romney's view than Barack
Obama's. Obama and his party have bet everything on
the notion that economic distress would make
Americans favor a bigger government. That turned out
to be a losing bet.
Romney and his party are betting that voters are
ready for market-oriented reforms. Despite his
political tin ear, Romney has been making progress
in honing this message.
Meanwhile Obama is flailing. That's not the behavior
of an incumbent president confident of winning
re-election.
Copyright 2012, Creators Syndicate Inc.