|
| |
OBAMA'S ISSUES CRUMBLING
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com
At last, there is convincing evidence that Obama's poll numbers may be
descending to earth. While his approval remains high -- and his personal
favorability is even higher -- the underlying numbers suggest that a decline may
be in the offing. Even as he stands on his pedestal, the numbers under his feet
are crumbling.
According to a Rasmussen poll, more voters now trust Republicans more than
Democrats to handle the economy, by a margin of 45-39. Scott Rasmussen notes
that "this is the first time in over two years of polling that the GOP has held
the advantage on this issue." Last month, he had the Democrats holding a
one-point lead, but they lost it in June's polling.
And the Democratic leads over Republicans on their core issues are also
dropping. Particularly interesting is the Democratic decline over healthcare,
from an 18-point lead in May to only 10 points now.
A Gallup poll also confirms that the president's personal ratings are high, but
the underlying data less so. While 67 percent of voters give Obama personal
favorable ratings and 61 percent approve of his job performance (Rasmussen has
his job approval lower, at 55 percent), they give him much lower ratings on
specific issues.
Gallup shows Obama getting only 55 percent approval on his handling of the
economy (down from 59 percent in February) and finds that only 45 percent
approve of his handling of federal spending while 46 percent approve of his
treatment of the budget deficit.
As it becomes clearer that the deficit caused by spending has landed us in a new
economic crisis, entirely of Obama's own making, his popularity and job
performance are likely to drop as well.
The old recession -- that the public says was caused by Bush -- shows signs of
winding down. But the new recession and/or inflation -- triggered by Obama's
massive deficits -- is just now coming upon us.
If Obama refuses to cut back on his spending/stimulus plans (despite convincing
evidence that Americans are not spending the money), he has three options:
a) He can raise taxes, which will trigger a deeper recession;
b) He can print money, which will trigger huge inflation;
c) He can pay more interest to borrow money, which will send the economy diving
down again.
The blame for these outcomes will fall squarely on Obama's deficit and spending
policies. The fact that Americans are aware of these issues, and already
disapprove of Obama's performance on them, indicates that they will be
increasingly receptive to blaming him for the "new" recession.
Interestingly, Obama's polling is now the exact opposite of President Clinton's
in the days after Monica Lewinsky. Back then, the president's approval for
handling specific issues was his forte, while his job approval remained high but
his personal favorability lagged 20 points behind. Ultimately, it is a
politician's performance on specific issues that determines his electability.
Personal favorability withers in the face of issue differences. Obama is about
to find out that you cannot rely on image to bolster your presidency when the
underlying issues are crumbling.
All this data suggests that Obama might run out of steam just as he gets to his
healthcare agenda. As unemployment mounts, month after month, and Obama's claims
of job creation (or savings) ring hollow, it is possible that he will not have
the heft to pass his radical restructuring of the healthcare system. The
automaton Democratic majority may pass it anyway, but it will be a one-way
ticket to oblivion if they do.
Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!