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ELDERLY LEAD OPPOSITION ON OBAMA HEALTHCARE
By DICK MORRIS
TheHill.com
In 1993-94, when the Clintons tried to pass healthcare reform, the opposition to
their proposals was concentrated among middle-aged voters, galvanized by the
"Harry and Louise" ads. But opposition to the Obama proposals centers among the
elderly, who suspect that it will mean a sharp curtailment of their medical
care.
The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll of July 21-24 found that voters over 65
opposed the Obama plan by 35-47. They oppose a government-run insurance plan to
compete with private plans by 31-56 and believe that the Obama plan will "cost
me money" rather than "save me money" by 57-20! Only 24 percent of the elderly
feel that the Obama plan will lead to better healthcare for "you and your
family," while 45 percent believe the quality of care will be worse.
By 61-29, elderly voters reject the idea that "it is possible to have major
healthcare reform without increasing the budget deficit. They also say, by
65-29, that it is impossible to have it without raising taxes. Three-quarters
expect their personal taxes to go up if the plan passes.
Oddly, for a population that now gets its health services through government-run
Medicare, they would rather be in a privately run system than one managed by the
government, by 67-7.
Most resistant to change, the elderly voters cite fears that they "will have to
change existing healthcare arrangements" as the greatest reason to oppose the
Obama plan.
The political impact of these findings is enormous. Instead of facing an
inchoate unease about Obama's proposals, Democrats who vote for them are likely
to find themselves running into the teeth of strong, concentrated elderly
opposition. Fears of rationing and the denial of care are stoking opposition to
a fever pitch among the elderly. So widespread is the dissatisfaction with the
Obama plan that it may drive the elderly into Republican ranks as surely as
Bush's Social Security reforms alienated then in 2005 and drove them into the
arms of Democrats.
The factors that animate elderly opposition to the Obama plan are not generally
those under discussion in Washington. The polling shows that the elderly are not
as fixated on macro issues like the deficit or what taxes must be raised to pay
for the program as they are on very specific personal concerns about their
continued access to quality medical care. Seniors are less interested in whether
there will be a government insurance option than whether they will face
rationing of care.
Open-ended questions on a number of surveys find the elderly very worried that
they will not be able to get quality-of-life treatments, such as hip or knee
replacements, under the Obama program. Others worry that the program will
encourage them to give up when facing serious illness and enter hospices to
minimize costs to the government.
The Clintons lost the elections of 1994 primarily because of the tax increases
the Democratic Congress passed. Healthcare reform was not nearly as important in
their defeat as the tax hikes. But in the elections of 2010, the elderly are
likely to respond harshly to the healthcare reforms and, increasingly, may vote
Republican as a result.
For his part, Obama faces a tough dilemma. The more he enlists his personal
popularity in his campaign for healthcare reform, the more his job approval
ratings will drop -- as they have recently. And the lower these ratings go, the
less likely he is to be able to persuade his party to pass his healthcare
reforms.
These survey results will come as no surprise to congressmen and senators who go
home in August and take soundings in their districts. The opposition of their
elderly constituents to the plans making their way through Congress will be
obvious. And when they feel the heat, they will, hopefully, see the light.