Conservatives Don't Panic: U.S. is Still Center Right

 

IBDEditorials.com

After Mitt Romney's loss, there's been plenty of talk about how demographic trends will require Republicans to move to the center if they want to capture the White House.

But what's missing from all this handwringing is the fact that conservatives today account for a bigger share of voters than they did when Reagan won his 1980 landslide.

After Obama won in 2008, there was also endless talk about how that election was a sign of a massive political realignment, with some going so far as to claim that a "permanent progressive majority" had emerged. Two years later, conservatives swept the House and nearly reclaimed the Senate.

To be sure, there is a significant demographic shift going on, as Asian and Hispanic populations — who've been largely voting Democratic — claim a larger share of the population. And there are more people dependent on government than ever before.

Ideological Bedrock

But despite all this, the nation's ideological composition has remained remarkably steady for decades.

When Ronald Reagan trounced Jimmy Carter in 1980, 32% of voters were conservative, according to exit polls at the time. By 1996, when Clinton won reelection, that share had risen to 33%.

And this year, exit polls show that 35% of voters are conservative, far more than the 25% who identify themselves as liberal. Over the years, the share of moderates has remained relatively steady at around 40% to 45%.

In other words, the nation remains center-right.

Nor have voters suddenly decided they're in love with big government. In fact, the share of voters who say the government is doing too much climbed from 43% in 2008 to 51% in 2012, back to where it was in 1996, just before Bill Clinton declared the era of big government was over.

In addition, with Pat McCrory's win in North Carolina, 30 states now have reform-minded, limited-government Republican governors, the most since 2000.

While the public's ideological views haven't changed much, what this election did expose is a glaring disconnect between voters' ideology and the person they picked to run the country.

In addition to the 51% who say the federal government is too big and does too much, 52% said the country is seriously off track.

Don't Raise Taxes

Nearly two thirds (63%) said taxes should not be raised to help cut the deficit. And almost half want ObamaCare repealed either in whole or in part.

Yet substantial portions of these conservative-leaning voters actually cast their ballots for Obama, the one candidate who opposes them on each of these issues.

More voters also thought that Obama's policies favor the middle class, even though under Obama the middle class has actually been losing ground — something unheard of in previous economic recoveries.

There's no doubt that the color and ethnic background of the electorate is changing. But so far, there's no evidence that this is having a huge impact on the country's basic political philosophy.

What is clear is that when conservative principles are effectively articulated, they can change people's views, no matter their ethnic background. That's what happened in 1984, when Reagan pushed the share of conservative voters up to 36%, and liberal voters below 20%.

All this suggests that if conservatives want to win presidential elections, they don't need to dust off their "compassionate conservative" hats, or make peace with high taxes and an intrusive federal state.

They do, however, need to learn how to communicate with today's voters and help them understand how a limited federal government and a thriving private sector will deliver unmatched prosperity to everyone.